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Golden Globes Predictions

And so tomorrow night are the Golden Globes and prognosticators web-wide have been talking about who is going to win.   No reason for me to do the same, except I must...sort of.

If...Then

The Top 100 onscreen Oscar nominees of all time is the focal point of the book, "And the Winner Really Is."  Let's look at the chart and see what changes could come as a result of this year's Oscars.  There will be no shake-up of the Top 20 apple cart, a la Daniel Day-Lewis, Denzel Washington, and Cate Blanchett have managed to do in the past couple of years.  This year, any changes will be happening in the chart's lower reaches, with one notable exception: if Robert Duvall is nominated for Best Supporting Actor for "The Judge," (possible) it will be his 7th nomination in total and will move him (the nomination alone, I mean) from #36 where he currently is all the way to #24, bumping Dame Judi Dench down a notch.  If Hilary Swank picks up a nom for "The Homesman" (unlikely), it will be her third overall and the two-time winner would move from her current ranking of #65 to #55, bumping Sally Field down a peg.  If Amy Adams picks up notice for "Big Eyes" (unlikely), it would be her 6th nomination and would vault her from #98 at present way up to #62, shoving aside Thelma Ritter.  As Adams would most certainly not win this year, her 0-6 record would put her in a tie with Deborah Kerr, Glenn Close, and Ritter for most-nominated woman without a win.  Two men (Peter O'Toole and Richard Burton, with 8 and 7 nominations respectively) have had more noms with no competitive trophies won.  Certain nominee Julianne Moore currently sits outside the top circle at #145 with 4 nominations.  Her imminent 5th nom this year would put her into the Top 100 at #98, bumping Amy Adams down a notch and moving Clark Gable out of the Top 100 entirely.  If Moore wins (likely), she will not only enter the Top 100, she will do so at a whopping #54, right above Morgan Freeman.  That's a lot of what-if's; what it shows is that this is a year predominantly  of newcomers, with Moore the most likely exception.  And let's not forget Streep; Meryl will further cement her status as legend with her 19th nomination, the same number as Katharine Hepburn and Ingrid Bergman combined.

Other Possible Noms

Some other nominees are getting mentioned as possible Oscar contenders this year; some of them have been to the dance before.  If they are nominated, their new nominee totals would be: Robert Duvall (7); Amy Adams (6); Joaquin Phoenix (4); Jessica Chastain (3); Bradley Cooper (3); Laura Dern (3); Ralph Fiennes (3); Hilary Swank (3); Naomi Watts (3); Tom Wilkinson (3); Josh Brolin (2); Marion Cotillard (2); Jake Gyllenhaal (2); Bill Murray (2); Tilda Swinton (2).

Other Likely Nom Totals

Other likely nominees this year who will add to their nomination totals include: Meryl Streep (19); Edward Norton (3); Ethan Hawke (2); Keira Knightley (2); Mark Ruffalo (2); Reese Witherspoon (2).  There is likely to be no change in the overall Top 100 due to the nominees this year, except for Julianne Moore.  If Moore is nominated, she will enter the Top 100.  If Moore wins (very likely), she will vault halfway up to the chart to roughly position #53.

Julianne Moore - 57?

If (when) Julianne Moore gets nominated for an Oscar for her performance in "Still Alice," she will become the 57th onscreen performer in the history of the Oscars to receive five or more competitive acting nominations.